Browsing by Subject "Climatic changes"
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- ItemOpen AccessAccess to water - the impact of climate change in small municipalities(University of Cape Town. Energy Research Centre, 2007) Mukheibir, PierreThe key objective of this case study is to demonstrate the affect of projected climate change impacts on the local water supply of a small town and the related financial consequences in terms of water pricing and access. While the delivery of basic water services, free for the first 6kl per household per month, is driven by a national development goal, it is incumbent on local government to ensure this right. For this, the local municipality needs to ensure that water supplies meet the consumption demand, present and future. Technical and financial planning are therefore required to ensure that an undisrupted services is provided. The impact of climate change needs to be included in this planning.
- ItemOpen AccessAnalysis of possible quantified emission reduction commitments by individual Annex I Parties(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Letete, ThapeloThis paper draws on research in the public domain, in order to provide an analytical basis for a proposal on possible quantified emission reduction commitments for Annex 1 countries under the Kyoto Protocol.
- ItemRestrictedBuilding bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali(Taylor & Francis, 2007) Winkler, Harald; Vorster, ShaunWhat would the shape of a realistic, yet ambitious, package for the climate regime after 2012 look like? How do we obtain a package deal starting in Bali but building bridges to a post-2020 climate regime? A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive package deal has to strike a core balance between development and climate imperatives (mitigation, adaptation, dealing with the impacts of response measures, technology transfer, investment and finance) to create bargaining space and establish a conceptual contract zone. Within a continuum of possible packages, two packages in the contract zone are identified: ‘multi-stage’ and ‘ambitious transitional’. The latter is ambitious, combining domestic cap-and-trade for the USA, deeper cuts for Annex B countries, and quantifiable mitigation actions by developing countries. It is transitional as a possible bridge to a more inclusive regime beyond 2020. Multi-stage is defined around mechanisms by which countries move through increasingly stringent levels of participation, and must be based upon agreed triggers. Our assessment of political dynamics is that multi-stage is not yet in the political contract zone. Key to this is the absence of a ‘trigger from the North’, in that the largest historical emitter must act earlier and most decisively. But progress will also depend on continued leadership from Annex B countries, as well as more proactive, incentivized leadership in the South. Agreeing on the transitional stage is the critical next step in the evolution of the climate regime. Negotiating any package will require an institutional space for bargaining, political leadership and trust, and a clear time-frame.
- ItemOpen AccessCarbon isotope ratios of Sterkfontein fossils indicate a marked shift to open environments c.1.7 Myr ago(2003) Luyt, C J; Lee-Thorp, J ASterkfontein straddles a period in the Plio-Pleistocene in which the effects of global-scale climate shifts on continental environments and biota are not yet well understood. Reconstructions based on faunal indicators have suggested incremental shifts from relatively closed, mesic landscapes to open, arid environments at this time. We examined environmental shifts from ~2.5 to 1.7 million years ago (Myr) using a C3 / C4 index derived from 13C / 12C data on bovid fossils from Sterkfontein. Data for Member 4 and the Member 5 East infill indicate persistence of a wooded to moderately wooded environment until about 2.0-1.8 Myr. Data indicating a marked shift to open environments are observed only for the younger Member 5 West infill. We conclude that the major shift to open environments occurred near 1.7 Myr rather than at c. 2.5 Myr.
- ItemRestrictedChanging development paths: from an energy-intensive to low-carbon economy in South Africa(Taylor & Francis, 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, AndrewClimate change mitigation poses significant challenges for South Africa and its energy development, historically highly energy intensive. At the same time, the country faces a host of daunting development challenges, exacerbated by the legacy of apartheid. Examining both challenges, this paper considers how alternative conceptions of a development path can be achieved. In the short term, energy efficiency provides large potential for mitigation – and energy savings at the same time. Changing South Africa’s fuel mix, dependent to three-quarters on coal, is at least a medium-term challenge. The minerals–energy complex is so central to the economy that it is likely to take decades to change dramatically. The most transformative change is to an alteration in economic structure, likely to take long to achieve. The article examines specific policy instruments that might be implemented to achieve such a transformation. A transition to a low-carbon economy will require a paradigm shift in industrial policy. It will require considered provision for sectors sensitive to changes in energy prices. Building up new, climate-friendly industries will be needed to sustain employment and investment. To enable a just transition, provision will have to be made for emissions-intensive sectors, if they are to be phased out over time. South African government has adopted a vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Policymakers have begun to understand that the future will be carbon constrained and that South Africa’s emission will have to stop growing, stabilize and decline before mid-century. The challenge of climate change is a long-term challenge, requiring immediate action. This article examines actions at near-, medium- and long-term timescales. Its focus is on the most transformative change, that of seeking to shift development paths.
- ItemRestrictedDeveloping a Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP) for climate change: the city of Cape Town(SAGE Publications, 2007) Mukheibir, Pierre; Ziervogel, GinaClimate change increases the likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heat waves, as well as more gradual changes in temperature and precipitation. The city of Cape Town (South Africa) is at risk from projected climate-induced warming and changes in rainfall variability. This makes resource management and infrastructure planning more challenging and increases the urgency of the need to adapt city-level operations to both current climate variability and future climate change. To date, however, the main focus of adaptation planning has been at the national level, and has not adequately addressed municipal-scale adaptation. This paper presents and discusses an overarching framework that would facilitate the development of a Municipal Adaptation Plan (MAP). The example of the city of Cape Town illustrates some of the sector-level assessments and potential climate threats, as well as resource mobilization issues that need to be addressed during the development and implementation of a MAP. In conclusion, a number of barriers to developing a MAP are discussed.
- ItemOpen AccessEconomics of climate change: context and concepts related to mitigation(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Tyler, Emily; Visser, Martine; Brick, KerriClimate change is increasingly seen as not only an environmental issue, but a deeply economic one. ‘Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest ranging market failure ever seen’ (Stern Review 2006). Markets are failing to put a price on the emissions of greenhouse gases, passing the costs on to society as a whole.
- ItemOpen AccessEconomy-wide Modeling: An input into the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios process(University of Cape Town. Energy Research Centre, 2007) Pauw, KalieThe objective of this analysis is to develop a better understanding of the likely impact that various mitigation options may have on the economy in terms of GDP, employment and household welfare. As noted in the introduction, outcomes of three mitigation scenarios, Start Now, Scale Up and Use the Market, are evaluated. These mitigation scenarios are combinations of different degrees of energy efficiency that can be achieved, structural shifts in energy output mix and, in the case of the latter scenario, economic instruments used to reduce emissions. Results are compared in comparative static fashion against a ‘business as usual’ reference case called growth without constraints (GWC). This remains a scenario analysis, and by no means can we claim that results are necessarily an accurate reflection of the true outcome. Given the long time horizon and the multitude of economic variables and parameters that may change over time and impact on each other, not to mention factors external to the South Africa economy that cannot be controlled, it is unwise to have too much confidence in results. However, the exercise remains useful. We are upfront about the limitations, the assumptions and the methods used to arrive at results, and given these, the scenario analysis provides a useful starting point for policy discussions around possible outcomes under various different mitigation scenarios for South Africa.
- ItemOpen AccessThe effect of response measures to climate change on South Africa's economy and trade(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Jooste, Meagan; Winkler, Harald; van Seventer, Dirk; Truong, Truong PArticle 4.8 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides that ‘Parties shall give full consideration to … the impact of the implementation of response measures, especially on … (h) Countries whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing and export, and/or on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy intensive products’. Article 2.3 of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC requires that developed country Parties (Annex I) ‘shall strive to implement policies and measures … in such a way to minimize … effects on international trade’ as well as minimizing the adverse effects on developing country Parties (Article 3.14). If Annex I Parties implement mitigation, they are assumed to buy less oil, coal or other fossil fuels. In this context, response measures are actions taken or initiated by developed countries (Annex 1) but with the impacts and ramifications flowing on to developing countries. The concern of developing countries, therefore, is in those impacts which to a greater or lesser extent depend on the degree of exposure of developing countries to trade (with or without the implementation of corresponding climate measures within the developing countries themselves). The South African economy derives much of its growth from production related to the energy-intensive sectors of its economy. In general, with the climate negotiations on the future of the climate regime post-2012, the implications for energy-intensive and trade-exposed sectors of the economy need to be clearly understood. This research confirms findings of previous studies (see Section 1.3), that the impacts of response measures may imply losses of exports in some sectors, but also possibly gains in other sectors. In this report the scenarios examined are broader than those examined under an earlier Fund of Research into Industrial Development, Growth and Equity (FRIDGE) study. In particular, this study highlights the impacts which response measures have on sectors other than the manufacturing sector, including mining, agriculture and tourism. The present report has provided a more specific identification of energy-intensive and trade-intensive sectors – and those that are both energy- and trade-intensive. We have also examined variations related to scenarios with and without emission trading among Annex I countries, and extended this to the consideration of a no-lose crediting approach for non-Annex I (NAI) countries.
- ItemOpen AccessElectricity from solar home systems in South Africa(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2007) Prasad, GiselaIn developed countries, renewable energy (RE) technologies are most often introduced for environmental reasons, to reduce GHG emissions mandated under the Kyoto Protocol – which South Africa signed in 2002. The Protocol does not commit non-Annex 1 (developing) countries such as South Africa to any emission targets in the first commitment period (2008 to 2012), however, and it creates no external pressure to reduce emissions. So it is understandable that in this case study the major government concern is not the environment, but access to electricity for the poor in remote rural areas. RE technologies are not widely disseminated in South Africa, although solar resources are very high and solar technologies are particularly suitable. The general environmental awareness is limited when compared to European countries and it is only recently that the media have been more regularly covering issues such as global warming and its impact on South Africa. The South African government generally supports RE, and its RE policy stipulates a voluntary target of 10 000 GWh to be supplied from renewable sources by 2013. The target is approximately 10% of the country’s electricity demand, of which now less than 1% is met from renewable sources (DME 2004). Different players in projects and the industry give various explanations and reasons why the market has not responded more positively, often citing high initial capital cost as the major explanation. The two South African case studies describe solar water heaters (SWHs) (case study 1) and, in this report, electricity from solar home systems (case study 2). Both case studies include the impact of poverty on the dissemination and acceptance of the technology. SHS using photovoltaic panels to generate electricity have been provided as part of the National Electrification programme in remote poor rural areas to which the grid has not been extended, as a substitute for grid electricity, although in fact subsidised SHS were expected to bring light and television services at a much faster rate than they actually did.
- ItemOpen AccessElectricity supply options, sustainable development and climate change priorities: case studies for South Africa(Magnum Custom Publishing, 2007) Winkler, Harald; Mwakasonda, Stanford; Garg, Amit; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Mukheibir, PierreThis report summarizes the results of the Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies project that has been managed by the UNEP Risø Centre on behalf of UNEP DTIE. The project, sponsored by UNEP, is a partnership between the UNEP Risø Centre and centers of excellence in South Africa, China, India and Brazil. The focus of this report is on the energy sector policies that mainstream climate interests within development choices. The country study results for future energy and environment projections that are included in this report are backed by intensive economy-energy-environment modeling by the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town, South Africa, wherein general scenario analysis of the energy sector explores some policies in more depth. The report argues that starting from development objectives is critical to mitigation efforts in developing countries. Instead of defining local benefits as ancillary to mitigation, reductions of GHG emissions should be seen as the co-benefits of policies that drive local sustainable development. A development-focused approach seems more likely to be implemented than the imposition of GHG targets by the international community—especially as South Africa has adopted development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and promoted the Johannesburg Plan of Action.
- ItemOpen AccessEnergy futures modelling for African cities: selecting a modelling tool for the SAMSET project(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2014) Tait, Louise; McCall, Bryce; Stone, AdrianUrbanisation is occurring fastest in developing countries, with the least developed countries expected to have the highest population growth rates between 2010 and 2050 (Madlener and Sunak, 2011). Cities in these countries are going to increasingly be important sites of energy demand and associated emissions. Much of the literature about sustainable urban energy transitions has to date focussed on developed country contexts; as the current sources of greatest emissions, this makes sense. In looking forward, however, if the energy demand and emissions of developing country cities increase to that equivalent of many western cities today, we may be unable to avoid catastrophic climate change. Transitioning energy infrastructures and associated urban systems is a long-term process. In the absence of forward planning, developing country cities run risks of infrastructural and urban planning lock-in to systems that are unsustainable (Olazabal and Pascual, 2013).
- ItemRestrictedEnergy policies for sustainable development in South Africa(Elsevier, 2007) Winkler, HaraldThis paper summarises the results of a study that analysed ways of making South Africa’s future energy development more sustainable. The South African economy is comparatively energy-intensive, with total primary energy supply of 11.7 MJ per US$ of GDP on a purchasing power parity basis, compared to 7.9 MJ/$ for Asia and 6.7 MJ/$ for Latin America. Moreover, the high dependence on coal makes the country also very carbon-intensive, with energy related CO2 emissions of 6.7 tonnes per capita, comparable to the OECD average of about 11 tCO2 /cap., and far higher than the non-OECD average of 1.7 tCO2/cap. Important policy initiatives are already under way to improve energy efficiency as well as the share of renewable energy. The impact of different energy policies, including alternative technologies for both supply and demand up to 2025, were analysed using the Markal model, a least-cost optimising tool. The reference case is close to the government’s Integrated Energy Plan, with CO2 emissions increasing from 337 million tonnes (Mt) in 2001 to 591 Mt in 2025. A cost-effective renewable energy policy scenario would increase the renewable electricity generation from 2,000 GWh in 2001 to almost 18,000 GWh in 2025, with significant contribution from solar thermal and biomass cogeneration technologies. Energy efficiency can make a substantial contribution, especially in industry. The combination of measures would reduce total energy system costs by 16 billion rands ($ 2.2 billion) and CO2 emissions by 770 Mt, each over a 25-year period. The policies analysed here can therefore contribute both to sustainable development and to climate change mitigation.
- ItemOpen AccessEstimating greenhouse gas emissions associated with achieving universal access to electricity in South Africa(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2012) Tait, Louise; Winkler, HaraldClimate change, energy security and achieving universal electricity access for all households are all pressing issues that South Africa must address. These objectives need not be trade-offs, however, and achieving electricity access for the poor does not justify the building of large coal-fired power stations or threaten South Africa’s climate change objectives. This paper estimates the electricity demand from the residential sector to 2020 resulting from universal access, and finds that electricity for low-income households would constitute only a small addition to total electricity demand and would represent only a minor portion of output from the coal-fired power station, Medupi. Furthermore, emissions from the additional electricity consumed by newly connected households would have a negligible impact on South Africa’s emissions profile.
- ItemOpen AccessExternal cost of electricity generation: contribution to the Integrated Resource Plan 2 for Electricity(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2010) Edkins, Max; Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Spalding-Fecher, RandallThe international studies on energy externalities and the local studies in South Africa suggest that the high impact areas for power generation are impacts of climate change and health impacts of outdoor air pollution. Climate change impacts are by far the greatest. The health costs due to outdoor air pollution are considered quite low based on national studies, though these may be underestimated. Damage cost from acid mine drainage is also thought to be significant, and could be substantially higher than reported here. External costs of electricity generation are a necessary factor in modelling the IRP 2. To be consistent, external costs must be added to the modeller’s reference case and to all policy cases or scenarios. In the multiple criteria decision-making process, the external costs should be reported as a distinct criterion. The weighting of this criterion relative to others (cost, carbon, and access) should be discussed with stakeholders. Although the external cost presented here are appropriate for input into the IRP 2, an extensive national review must be completed for future IRPs. Furthermore, the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) should take additional factors into account: health impacts of indoor air pollution (important in poor households, as well as industry); noise from transport, and other poverty-related issues such as wealth impacts of paraffin fires and burns, and social costs of fuel wood scarcity.
- ItemOpen AccessFair and effective multilateralism in the post-Copenhagen climate negotiations(University of Cape Town, 2010) Winkler, Harald; Beaumont, JudyCopenhagen failed to agree a new legal treaty, and fragmentation is now a possible scenario. What options exist for a fair and effective multilateralism that might bring about the next turning point? Possible changes are considered in the context of the ‘how, what, where and who’ of multilateral climate negotiations. Fair process is crucial to an acceptable outcome. In order to increase effectiveness, multilateralism may need to define contributions from smaller groups, on a representative basis. The functions of other fora must be to build common understanding, whereas decisions and agreements are negotiated under the UNFCCC and its instruments. Reorganization of work within the UNFCCC will need to enhance its catalytic role, including how it supports domestic action. A mix of processes is needed to speed up the pace of decision-making, combining well-established UN procedures with some innovative ideas including those from the theory and practice in other multilateral environmental agreements. A review in 2015 must increase ambition. We need to invest in the UNFCCC, which remains the only legitimate, fully inclusive forum. Only a legally binding agreement ensures that others also act (‘fair’) and a binding nature is the best assurance of implementation (‘effective’). Equity demands a fair and effective outcome.
- ItemOpen AccessGreen certificate trading(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Brick, Kerri; Visser, MartineThis paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 briefly outlines the policy instruments available for the promotion of renewable energy sources, while section 3 discusses green certificate trading in more detail, including the green certificate market in South Africa at present. Section 4 describes the international implementation of renewable energy support mechanisms. The lessons learnt from this experience in terms of design suggestions for the development of a South African TREC framework are detailed in Section 5. Also from international experience, Section 6 provides a comparison of a feed-in tariff scheme and a quota obligation system combined with tradable green certificates. Finally, the interaction between emission trading schemes and renewable energy promotion systems are outlined in Section 7.
- ItemOpen AccessLeveraging carbon revenue for poverty alleviation(2013) Atkins, Peter; Prasad, GiselaOne of the intentions of the Kyoto Protocol and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was to use markets to allow the developed countries to supplement their own greenhouse gas reduction efforts with carbon reductions made in developing countries by purchasing carbon offsets. By these means, it was hoped, global greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced and developing countries would benefit through incoming carbon revenue and technology transfer. This has worked for China and India, which together account for 88% of all CDM carbon credits issued so far, but it hasn’t worked for Africa which has only a miserly 1% of the issued credits. The main reasons for this disparity are thought to be the high transaction costs of the CDM and the long and complicated registration, validation, monitoring and verification processes. The costs are around R400 000 to R2 000 000 per project (CCWG, 2009) . In addition it can take up to three years to get carbon revenue, if the project is one of the lucky 13% of projects to make it through to the end (see Appendix A – CDM Pipeline analysis). Partly in response to these CDM shortcomings, the voluntary carbon market has emerged. The voluntary carbon market has many players using many different standards and rules and regulations. Unfortunately, the CDM-like standards used by the bigger voluntary carbon market registries also incur high transaction costs and long lead times and therefore don’t work for typical, small African poverty alleviation projects with low greenhouse gas emission reduction potential. This has encouraged the development of small, agile carbon registries using simplified standards, which better fit the African projects. One such small registry and one of its poverty alleviation projects are analysed in this paper.
- ItemOpen AccessLong-term climate variability at the Prince Edward Islands in the Southern Ocean(2021) Shangheta, Anna Liisa Penelao Tulimevava; Lamont, Tarron; Ansorge, Isabel; Rouault, MathieuA warming Southern Ocean (SO), due to climate change and global warming, has many implications on the sub-Antarctic Islands in the SO. Due to the distance away from continental land these islands experience an oceanic climate, making them the perfect sentinels to climate change in this sector of the Southern Ocean. Studies have proposed that climate changes reported at the Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) correspond in time to a southward shift of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) particularly the Subantarctic Front (SAF). While other studies have shown distinctive trends in ocean and atmospheric parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, sunshine, rainfall, air sea level pressure and wind speed and direction from the 1950s to the early 2000s, the aim of this study is to update those studies to a more recent time with updated time series. Among the changes recorded is an increase in SST and air temperature, which is a strong indication of the changing local and global climate. Using linear regression, this study showed that the rates of increase from 1949 to 2018 of the SST (0.022°C/year), minimum (0.0072°C/year) and maximum air temperatures (0.016°C/year) are smaller than estimated in previous studies. The increasing trend in SST and air temperature reported by previous papers has actually stopped since the 2000s, which reduces the formerly reported trend (0.028°C/year). Although the in-situ measured SST data had gaps, a good correlation with in-situ SST and large scale satellite derived Reynolds SST help to corroborate the covariation between SST, in-situ SST and air temperature giving weight to the hypothesis of a reversal of the positive temperature trends reported by others. The change in decadal variability a decrease in air pressure of 4 hPa since the late 1990s to late 2000s, which coincided with a decrease in minimum and maximum air temperatures of 1°C over the same period; decrease in westerly wind and an increase in the northerly component of the wind, which would explain the decrease of inshore sea surface temperature a while thereafter. This study further corroborates previous findings of a continued decrease in rainfall, while the sunshine has largely remained the same. The seasonal cycle of the air pressure is significantly associated with that of rainfall, showing that the bimodal high air pressure signature resulting from the Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO) is associated with a decrease in rainfall. The Southern Annual Mode (SAM) was significantly yet weakly correlated with the SST (0.24), rainfall (-0.25) and air pressure (0.16), indicating that it does have an impact at the PEIs but not as strong as previously speculated. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has very weak and insignificant relationships with the parameters examined except for a weak relationship with in-situ SST, sunshine and air pressure. These new insights, especially at the decadal timescale, could further our insight on how subAntarctic islands have responded to climatic changes.
- ItemRestrictedMeasurable, reportable and verifiable: the keys to mitigation in the Copenhagen deal(Taylor & Francis, 2008) Winkler, HaraldThe climate negotiations up to Copenhagen will need to elaborate on measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) mitigation commitments and actions as part of the future of the climate regime. The conceptual, political, scientific, financial and institutional principles for MRV are explored for (1) mitigation commitments in developed countries, (2) mitigation actions in developing countries, supported by (3) means of implementation. For developed countries, the procedures in Articles 5, 7, 8 and 18 of the Kyoto Protocol will be critical in order to ensure comparability of commitments, both in effort and compliance. Outcomes should be reportable and verifiable through Annex I national communications and in-depth review. Existing procedures could be enhanced and need to apply across Protocol and Convention. MRV mitigation actions by developing countries should result in measurable deviations below baseline. Inventories will be important to measure, and enhanced national communications for reporting. The challenge will be to make mitigation actions verifiable, and options include verification by domestic institutions working to internationally agreed guidelines. A critical distinction is to be made between unilateral mitigation actions and those with international support. MRV applies to the provision of the means of implementation, including technology and finance. Investment in technology can be measured, so that institutional arrangements for technology and finance should be aligned. Verification of funds raised at international level would be simpler than raising funds nationally.